50 words agree or disagree to each question
Q1. Clearly define the problem at hand.
- List the possible alternatives.
- Identify the possible outcomes or states of nature.
- List the payoff (typically profit) of each combination of alternatives and outcomes.
- Select one of the mathematical decision theory models.
- Apply the model and make your decision.
A good decision with a bad outcome- I once invested a few thousand dollars into oil stock options. Many of the fundamental and technical indicators were showing positive signs for the short and mid term forecasts. The oil sector itself did rise substantially, but my particular company was saddled with a couple of unforeseen lawsuits that depressed the stock price for a few months, just in time for the options to expire far of out of the money despite a surging economy. This was a good decision since it was made using certain criteria, fundamental analysis, and technical indicators in order to choose a stock and invest in a derivative in the underlying security. It was not blind gambling like many day traders do. I was a bit more optimistic about the investment.
A bad decision with a good outcome- I once got into a real physical fight with a coworker after a heated discussion. It was a spur of the moment machismo showing that led to 4 on 4 person battle royale in the open. We eventually broke away and were able to lose the pursuers. The good outcome was that the people I was in charge of that were present for the fight saw me as the most venerable person to follow into the depths of anywhere after that. It was not so much of an intentional decision walking into the situation, but after a certain point the Expected Opportunity Loss, respect lost after being insulted, seemed as great if not greater than not fighting. This is something I don't think too many people will understand or support since the tendency is toward kinder more gentler times (for good reason). That departure from the norm is what led my fellow minions to respect me more than anyone else from there on out.
Besides my own example, here is an interesting article saw I found from Inc. about how good decision making can still result in bad outcomes. https://www.inc.com/bruce-eckfeldt/the-simple-4-box-model-that-skilled-entrepreneurs-use-to-analyze-important-decisions.html
Q2. Hope you are doing well this week! I am a little overwhelmed and stressed, so I am sorry I am a little late! I had a hard time thinking of my decisions in the past, and realized I have been blocking out most of my memories! It’s absolutely terrible.
But, it took a lot of thinking, but I finally remembered some examples!
The good decision: So, I wanted to feel pretty! So, I went and spent some money to get my eyelashes done. It cost a little over $100 and they looked really pretty! I was really happy with it. Then, a few weeks pass by. The eyelash extensions are starting to grow out and fall out. They are kind of annoying and look a little janky, but that’s usually what happens after a few weeks. So, I am driving to work. On a highway. Going around 70 mph. All of a sudden I feel a stinging in my eye. I figure it has to be an eyelash, but, it didn't feel like a regular eyelash, it felt like death. So I started rubbing my eye, trying to get whatever was in it out, and I literally cannot see, it stung so bad (I found out later it was the glue on the extension that made my eye feel like that) and look in front of me and see a car RIGHT THERE. I slam on my breaks, but I was already too late- I totaled my car.
The decision was a good decision because I made the decision in the name of self care: to feel good, to save time in the mornings, and to save money on buying strip eyelashes.
Bad decision: I cut all of my hair off in 2015. I was young and felt like I could rock having short hair. It was terrible- I never realized how much of my confidence and my identity was tied to having long hair to hide behind. But, later on I realized it had been for the best – because I was able to grow confidence in myself no matter how long or short my hair was. It was a bad decision because I didn’t need to do that to myself, but I did anyway.